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Prediction for CME (2022-09-23T18:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-23T18:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21721/-1
CME Note: Eruption from AR 3110 (near N18E80) starting around 2022-09-23T17:30Z seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304. Opening of field lines occurs around 17:50Z seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193. This CME is also associated with an M1.7 flare peaking at 2022-09-23T18:10Z. Appears to contain a weak faint shock that is much wider. Comment from Tarik Salman from LASSOS team regarding arrival (non-arrival in this case): Looking at the in-situ signatures, I confirm that the L1 signature appears dominated by the HSS arrival. I do not necessarily see any noteworthy features of an ICME. For weak ICMEs or ICMEs with glancing blows, it becomes really tricky to distinguish them, especially when there is another large-scale structure (i.e., HSS) present.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-27T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC event_ID: 291

From SIDC Ursigram issued: 2022 Sep 25 1247 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 20925
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The CME associated with the M1 flare from Catania group 48 (NOAA active region 3110) occurring close to the Eastern limb on September 23 has been analyzed more closely. It is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from around 18:12UTC with a projected speed of 1500km/s. Although directed well off the Sun-Earth line, given the speed of the CME a possible shock arrival can not be excluded and model runs indicate it could occur late tomorrow or in the early hours of September 27.

Earlier estimate:
from SIDC URSIGRAM issued: 2022 Sep 24 1232 UTC
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SIDC URSIGRAM 20924
Associated to the M1.7 flare a CME was launched towards the East from near
the East limb. It has an angular extent of around 160 degrees. This CME is
assessed as being too far to the East off the Sun Earth line to influence
Earth.

Lead Time: 34.28 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2022-09-25T13:43Z

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